The COVID-19 pandemic has created turbulence for the aviation industry the past 18 months, but a new report forecasts clearer skies for the commercial aftermarket maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) sector.
Just last fall, Aviation Week reported that the “MRO Aftermarket To Be Heavily Impacted by COVID-19 In The Next Three Years” but the turnaround could come much faster.
The 2022 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecasts, a 10-year outlook of the air transport industry produced with independent data by Aviation Week Intelligence Network’s internal forecasting teams, shows the commercial aftermarket demand will rapidly regain momentum.
The 2022 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecasts report was released on Sept. 20, 2021 and found that:
“Commercial transport aircraft are due for a continued recovery with several recent examples of pent-up air travel demand underscoring the optimistic forecast. Nearly 20,100 commercial aircraft will be delivered with more than 10,000 aircraft retiring during the 10-year forecast period,” said Brian Kough, Senior Director, Forecasts & Aerospace Insights, Intelligence & Data Services.
“At risk are both the pace at which pandemic-influenced travel risks are perceived and restrictions acted upon as well as underlying economic conditions continuing their positive outlook.”
The 2022 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecasts says that Airbus should surpass Boeing in narrowbody deliveries with the A320 outnumbering the 737 fleet by over 3,700 aircraft by 2031.
“The anticipated retirement wave is not likely in the very near term, but a historically high percentage of the fleet retirements, about three percent, are expected by 2028/2029,” according to the report. “Long-term aircraft retirements could signal trouble for legacy engine parts suppliers as green time and used serviceable materials (USM) flood the engine market in the second half of the decade.”
Aviation Week Intelligence Network’s internal forecasting teams will release more reports in mid-October including:
“The 10-year commercial air transport forecast provides unbiased views into the future for key fleet and MRO market areas necessary for leaders to strategize, plan and develop business investment goals to capitalize on the upcoming trends and opportunities,” says the Aviation Week Intelligence Network.
The 2022 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecasts focuses on Western-oriented turbofan and turboprop powered aircraft.
The forecasts allow users to:
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